Two races into the 2015 FIA World Endurance Championship, and heading for Circuit de La Sarthe and the legendary 24 Hours of Le Mans, how many out there thought that the defending world champions would be so far behind the LMP1 benchmark? Certainly not me, not unless something drastic happens.
It’s been a forgettable start to 2015 for the Toyota Racing squad, who’ve failed to make a serious dent at the front of the field, yielding power and reliability to both Audi and Porsche, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they can close the gap and do anything other than make up the LMP1 numbers when we get to France.
Ominously, Audi flexed their muscle at Spa-Francorchamps, Belgium on the weekend, winning another epic six-hour contest, and they did so – crucially – in Le Mans spec trim. Their low downforce package is obviously a winner, as is the ability of the Audi squad to double stint tyres, which was the difference between a race victory and a second place.
Where the #7 Audi R18 e-tron quattro of Marcel Fassler, Andre Lotterer and Benoit Truluyer could run back-to-back stints on it’s tyres, the #18 Porsche 919 hybrid of Neel Jani, Romain Dumas and Marc Lieb could not, and crossed the start-finish line some thirteen seconds behind the Audi that looks most likely to win the 2015 world championship, at least based on current form.
Perhaps the most shocking thing at Spa this weekend wasn't the speed of Audi and Porsche, but the lack of speed showed by Toyota. The front running TS040 hybrid machine finished fourth, and was beaten out even by a high-downforce Audi machine. That piece of news alone would be ringing alarm bells at Toyota Racing headquarters, particularly with Le Mans looming in a few weeks.
Let’s not kid ourselves here: as important as winning the championship is, I doubt there’s a team or a driver out there who could honestly say that they value a world championship over a trip to the top step of the Le Mans podium.
Worryingly for the fourth-placed Toyota of newcomer Mike Conway and experienced pair, Alex Wurz and Stephane Sarrazin is that they cannot even claim mechanical or other drama for their lowly finishing position. Their race was clean, but they were simply well off the pace of the three Audis and three Porsches.
So, what can Toyota do? Their package obviously isn’t good enough, in present form, and on recent evidence, to have much hope of running up front. LMP1 qualifying has been dominated by Porsche, who put their three 919 hybrid machines on the first three grid spots in Belgium, and Audi have shown the goods on race day. Their bulletproof reliability has never been questioned, and it’s led to some Le Mans wins even when they haven’t necessarily had the fastest car.
A year ago, Toyota was being talked up as being serious challengers to Audi. Twelve months later, they are languishing. If their low-downforce package at Spa was anything to go by, it’s going to be a long twenty-four hours. For a squad who seemed set to capitalise on winning the world championship last year and push for a Le Mans victory that has so far eluded a squad that entered the series with that specific goal in mind, it’s a serious backward slide, and with the progression of Porsche as compared to a year ago, the hole Toyota are digging for themselves becomes bigger by the session. With Nissan joining the LMP1 ranks at Le Mans, there’s yet more competition coming.
The annual test day at Le Mans will give us a better idea of where Toyota are at and what their chances are come race day. Of course, anything is possible, particularly in a twenty-four hour endure, but only the boldest scribe could possibly predict a podium result, barring all sorts of incredible attrition. As they often say, a year is a long time in motorsport.
Toyota’s woes aside, the World Endurance Championship, is enjoying a scintillating start to the 2015 season. The 6 Hours of Spa was nothing short of astounding. The Audi vs. Porsche battle exploded around the midpoint of the 6-hour event, and watching the rival German squads fight each other in the middle of so much lapped traffic at one of the most picturesque race circuits anywhere in the world was a joy.
Two events down, and two tremendous races. In a decade or so, we may look back on this year as the beginning of a golden age of LMP1 racing, and with Nissan set to join at Le Mans, the sky really is the limit, and the 2015 edition of the greatest endurance race in the world could be one for the ages.
I can’t wait.
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